r/visualization • u/Ill-Site2743 • 1d ago
Made a thing that shows ensemble spread rather than just the median
Open-Meteo hands you all 40 ICON members, so I had a go at plotting the
fan rather than the median line.
Spread over London was 0.6°C at hour zero and 5.4°C by day 5. Knew that
in principle, hadn't actually looked at it before.
Couple of things I'm unsure about. I've drawn a marker where the 80%
band goes past 5°C as a rough "past here it's a range not a number",
but 5 is arbitrary — would normalising against climatology for the
location and season be more defensible? And I've noted that spread
underestimates actual error, but I don't have a feel for by how much.
