The midterms are imminent and will take place in about two months' time. The last two years have marked an era of increased inflation, suboptimal wages and general economic and geopolitical tension. These factors have resulted in very low recent approval ratings for President Trump (average of low to mid 30s). The House of Representatives is almost certain to flip and be controlled by Democrats during the next election cycle. The Senate, once thought to be out of reach, is now in play as well. Democrats are currently tied or leading in the following red states:

• North Carolina

• Texas

• Alaska

• Iowa

• Ohio

If they do end up winning all these states plus Maine while holding on to their existing seats, they will have a 53 - 47 majority. Furthermore, this would symbolize them making inroads into the deepest Republican strongholds.

In the event that this happens and the second half of Trump's presidency continues along the same trajectory as the first half (armed conflicts with countries that don't seem to have an end, tariffs and a disruption in global trade, inflation, etc) will GOP politicians begin to openly distance themselves from Trump? Or will they continue to support him due to fear that the base would primary them, as has happened to many politicians who defied Trump even as recently as a few months ago such as Thomas Massie? If the politicians whose seats are up in 2028 do stick to Trump even after a blue wave in 2026, are they concerned about facing defeat in the general election?