r/logic • u/Proof-Emotion-9459 • 2h ago
Is this a valid solution to Hangman's Paradox?
So the Hangman's Paradox states that "A judge tells a condemned criminal that he will be hanged at noon on one day of the coming week (Monday through Sunday), and that the day will be a surprise — he will not be able to deduce which day it is in advance. The criminal reasons as follows: Sunday is impossible. If he is still alive at Saturday noon, he will know with certainty that the hanging is Sunday, since no other day remains. This would not be a surprise, so Sunday is ruled out. Saturday is therefore also impossible. If he is alive at Friday noon, Sunday is already ruled out (by the previous step), so Saturday is the only day left. Again, no surprise — so Saturday is ruled out too. This reasoning cascades backward — Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday — eliminating every day in turn, until the criminal concludes that no surprise hanging is possible at all." But the point where the criminal's logic fails is when he reasons that on Friday, Saturday and Sunday both are eliminated. After Saturday noon, he knows that he is deemed to be hanged on Sunday noon. But on Saturday noon there are two possibilities:
Execution now.
Execution Tommorow.
But as the Sunday execution is unsurprising, it just says that the execution is now, and it also becomes unsurprising. Now, on Friday noon, the criminal applies the same logic, but with a fault. If he survives Friday noon, then he will be hanged on Saturday noon or Sunday noon. Since Saturday and Sunday are both eliminated, he cannot be hanged on either of days. But on Friday noon, he has to take Sunday and Saturday possible, because Saturday and Sunday hanging is not possible is an evaluation and not a fact. Sunday Hanging - Not surprise - Fact Saturday hanging- Not surprise - evaluation Because on Friday, there is possibility of hanging on either of days with the surprise element as he doesn't know which day will it be. And as we go backwards, these possibilities increase and so does the chance of surprise, peaking at Monday, because there are 5 possibilities of Surprise Hanging ( Removing Sunday ) and anytime from Monday noon to Saturday noon will be surprise. The exact logical fallacy the criminal faces is that he makes evaluations as heavy as facts and does not treat each day as new case, bringing previous evaluations into an entirely new case.