"Since mid-July, the US has reimposed its military blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions on Iran’s oil trade. In parallel, the U.S. military has worked tirelessly to clear shipping lanes and help protect commercial ships transiting the Strait. The result has been an effective blockade on Iranian oil shipments, with global shipments recovering and energy prices remaining remarkably stable. Bloomberg reported this week that oil flows through the Strait have recovered to 2/3 of pre-war levels.

That means pressure is now compounding on Iran, and not the US. And if Iran loses its ability to hold the Strait hostage, its leverage dissipates rapidly."

Ukraine’s top diplomat Andrii Sybiha said that Kyiv is hoping for increased momentum in peace talks soon, while Russia’s Putin has also signaled willingness to negotiate, with China being floated as a mediator alongside the U.S. But where is Europe in all this?

"Despite skepticism surrounding some of the Trump administration’s numbers, recent analysis from Goldman Sachs lends support to the broader claim that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered significantly.

Goldman analysts estimated in late August that exports of crude and petroleum products had risen to about 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels and well above the 5 million to 6 million-barrel trough reached in March.

The analysts also estimated that flows through Hormuz itself could be close to U.S. government estimates of 8 million to 10 million barrels a day. A key reason is the growing use of covert tanker crossings and ship-to-ship oil transfers.

CNN documented how Gulf producers and shipping companies have adapted to the conflict by moving tankers through the strait after dark with their AIS transponders switched off, often under U.S. military protection. The tactic allows vessels to become much harder to track publicly while they cross the most dangerous section of the route."

The Dutch central bank (DNB) has confirmed that billions of dollars in gold has been taken out of north America and relocated to London, citing "increasing geopolitical unrest".

DNB said on Wednesday that 86 tonnes of gold had been removed from the US and Canada in a complex operation that took several months. It is now being held by the Bank of England, where the precious metal can be traded more easily "in a crisis situation".

Bank president Olaf Sleijpen said the move was "necessary to strengthen our resilience and preparedness".

The decision comes amid an ongoing trade dispute between the US and Canada, with both countries announcing fresh tariffs on each other after failed trade talks.

[Excerpt from James F. Jeffrey, Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He served as a Foreign Service officer in seven U.S. administrations. From 2018 to 2020, he was Special Representative for Syria Engagement and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS.]

Six months in, the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran has settled into a stalemate. Neither Washington nor Tehran can achieve a clear military or diplomatic victory. Instead, the two sides have found themselves locked in a mutual blockade of oil and other shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and into Iranian ports, with no obvious way to change the status quo. The costs of accommodating the other side’s demands to end the stalemate are so high, and the costs of the stalemate sufficiently low, that a mutual blockade has emerged as the least bad option for both the United States and Iran for the foreseeable future.

This situation may not be ideal for Washington, but it avoids both defeat and escalation. It also works to the United States’ advantage over time: as the blockade drags on, Tehran’s position is likely to weaken faster than Washington’s. The United States has its own ample oil supplies to draw from, whereas nearly the entirety of Iran’s oil exports—and therefore much of its hard currency—has been cut off. An ongoing blockade that gradually ratchets up pressure on Iran could make Tehran more flexible in negotiations with the United States, leading to a compromise that Washington could accept. The challenge is to ensure that Tehran does not choose to respond to its worsening position by escalating its attacks and starting another regionwide conflict that ensnares the United States.

[Excerpt from essay by Amos Harel, Defense Analyst for Haaretz and the author of Anatomy of a Failure: The Road to October 7, which will be published in English in 2027.]

As he prepares to face Israeli voters next month after three years of incessant war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formulated a new strategy. Ignoring the huge costs in blood and treasure, let alone in support for Israel in the United States and elsewhere, he now publicly and explicitly supports waging wars without end. As a lesson of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, massacre, he asserts that Israel needs to take preemptive military action against every potential security threat it faces, regardless of the consequences. This has left many wondering how much of this hard-line approach might change if Gadi Eisenkot, the veteran military official who is running ahead of Netanyahu in the polls, manages to defeat him.

Thus far, Eisenkot, a classic centrist, has been blunt and sometimes caustic in making the case against the prime minister. But apart from vague statements about ending the longest war in Israeli history, he has generally avoided going into detail about his own national security strategy. On some issues, such as dealing with Hamas in Gaza, he has sounded more hawkish than Netanyahu. And when he is asked about the future of the conflict with the Palestinians—Israel’s most politically explosive issue—he has been extremely careful to avoid binding commitments. In a rare statement on such matters in August, Eisenkot said he was opposed to a Palestinian state, endorsing what is by now a consensus position across Israel’s political center and even parts of the center left as well as the right.

The attempted attack in Leipzig had all the hallmarks of state-sponsored terrorism, the European Union's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Wednesday, adding that Europe needs to coordinate on what more can be done given the escalation of Russia's attacks on Ukraine.