Stormy weather in my location and the internet is spotty right now. Anyone want to copy/paste for our reading pleasure?

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will empty its financial reserves in late 2032

Retirement and disability funds together, are projected to run dry around 2034

Bascially by the 2030s there will be no more pensions. 401k will be plundered by the government. They will increase the taxes on the working population to finance retirees.

Consumer spending will drop to 0. This is something that simply cannot be averted and will crash the economy 100%. Mathematically its inevitable.

On top of that we have the AI Bubble and 40 Trillion in debt. Rising interest rates. Around 1/3 of all 30 year bonds will mature in 2027. The "roading 2020s" are over, welcome to the depressed 2030s.

History really does rhyme.

See we were never going to get these so called tariff checks. This is from a gaming standpoint. Wait until other corporations get theirs.

The Dutch central bank (DNB) has confirmed that billions of dollars in gold has been taken out of north America and relocated to London, citing "increasing geopolitical unrest".

“The only fool-proof way to get a major bond market rally is to have a massive recession,” he said. “That would do it.”

I am fearful of the end of the current global economic order at best or a complete economic collapse at worst…yet its fascinating to see so many parts of society completely ignoring it as if its business as usual forever…I mean, sports and music sites and channels blab on about the upcoming season or tours, looking forward to success in their fields…but it might all collapse this year…then what? How will society deal with collapse?

Scenario 1 : AI is exposed as a scam. It can do 1/10 or 1/5 of what AI companies promised and needs another 10-15 years of development to get there. Stock market crash and a Recession/Depression follow.

Scenario 2: AI suceeds in doing 80-90% of what AI companies promised in the next 2-3 years. Hundreds of Millions of people lose their jobs. Consumer spending dries up, eliminating additional Millions of jobs due to lower demand. Recession/Depression.

There is no possible way the AI thing can turn out good for the economy. No matter what scenario materializes, it leads to economic collapse.

"The True Rate of Unemployment (TRU), as defined by LISEP, measures the percentage of the U.S. labor force that is functionally unemployed.

Using data compiled by the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the True Rate of Unemployment tracks the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $26,000 (in 2025 dollars) annually before taxes."

Lol. Slow day at Yahoo?

The pace at which capitalism is escalating, I think employers will very soon stop offering core benefits like 401k plans and health insurance, even for most professional roles like accountants, lawyers, doctors, etc. I mean, this is already the standard for most jobs in the US, which offer no benefits at all. Even for professional jobs, they already took away pensions successfully. I think it's just going to get worse and worse, quicker and quicker, as capitalism collapses. I think 401k plans and health insurance plans are the next frontier where employers are going to try to squeeze employees out of and make a quick buck.

Things are already so bad in terms of cost of living and the job market, I'm scared of how bad things are going to get when even securing a professional job cannot get you health insurance or retirement benefits, and you are just on your own… add that onto of the impending AI bubble pop and the massive economic downturn we will enter into because of that, things are going to get so, so bad if you are not the top 1%.

What’s the over/under on when the AI bubble bursts and the bond market shit storm comes to a head the S&P loses 1/3 of its value? Or something like that.

Good God, this guy is so frustrating. He's one of the few rich guys who acknowledges there's a problem but everything he proposes will at best, do little or nothing and at worst, make things worse. He's like a guy who realizes his house is on fire and thinks the best course of action is to rearrange the furniture instead of calling 911.

*Please note!* Post is new each Sunday evening. Top level comments should be at least 150 characters to encourage quality discussion, and users should refrain from making several top level comments in a week. Please mention location at the top of your comment when discussing local recession indicators.

Share your observations of local recession indicators or personal recession indicators. Examples include, but are not limited to:

• increased use of credit or decrease in savings to afford necessities
• deferred maintenance on homes or cars in your neighborhood
• "I buy houses for cash" (or similar) signs popping up
• bankruptcy attorneys experiencing higher volume of clients
• regional job losses/large corporate layoffs
• decline in housing starts or spike in homes being listed

Keep it civil and avoid judging any user for their personal financial experiences as shared here.

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage." Alexander Tytler

All my life I was told "debt doesnt matter". Well the US has passed the 40 Trillion treshold and is paying almost 1 Trillion anually in interest rate. At this rate it will pass the 50 Trillion treshold sometimes by 2030. Interest rate for debt by then will probably be 2 Trillion anually.

Will this amount of debt truly "never matter" or will there be a time of reckoning eventually? And if it "doesnt matter" no matter how high the debt is then why bother keeping track at all? Should not be a problem ever right?

The U.S. government’s debt has officially crossed $40 trillion for the first time.

That number is getting even more attention because it comes as long-term Treasury yields have climbed sharply. The 30-year yield recently reached 5.34%, its highest level since 2007, increasing the cost of borrowing for both the government and the private sector.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has responded by doubling the size of some long-term Treasury buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move is intended to improve liquidity and calm a bond market rattled by rising yields, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over America's fiscal position.

But there's an obvious bigger question: Can tactical moves in the bond market really solve a debt problem that has now reached $40 trillion?

And with higher oil prices, elevated borrowing costs and the Iran conflict adding pressure to the economy, the timing couldn't be more complicated.

The USA is a capitalist country meaning the government is led by capitalism and always growing up that inspired me, now it seems to me as if the system of capitalism is intentionally failing us citizens to benefit the top, mostly the powerful %1. Capital gains continue to climb due to dollar devaluation, hoarding of new money. Larger and larger percentages of money are going to the capital bag holders or long term holders of assets that then get taxed if sold.

Taxes should be used for helping the people but I don't doubt for a second they are being used much for anything like that, mostly for very wrong purposes, military budget misuse and robbing the citizens if it means further feeding the capitalist system.

Let me give you just a few examples of how they are taking billions out of the hands of everyday Americans:

For one, the government & state decides the range of wages allowed to certain workers and the corporation makes the final decision, wages are the same yet government & corporate profits continue to not climb, but sky rocket on a record breaking unfathomable level. The corporations would pay us less to nothing if they could since it brings in more profit to them and the government eats it up. Reminds me of the copy paste Amazon warehouse not long ago in Mexico that got shut down for paying it's workers $1.50/hr...

Two: now ticketing citizens by mail through Al or tracking them down for arrest through Al surveillance where they likely pay bond. A single one of these cameras can issue hundreds of tickets a day, there are now 135k of them which is a 40k increase from 3 months ago. I moved to Ohio 4 years ago when there were none.

Three: data centers consolidate wealth & new money strictly toward high-net-worth investors, private equity firms, and Big Tech executives...not to the average person, wages have stayed the same for years. Living has got so much more expensive, they've allowed more data centers and funding to them than any other state that no one asked for, just like the Al surveillance no one asked for those either.

Four: Attacks on far away places called wars are modernly looked at as a money grab in America, stirring the pot, bombing a few cities or dozen oil refineries that literally take decades each to build while driving up the price of oil, billions in profit for those who planned and take part in it which is a large number of people and corporations as a whole. It also drives up our price of gasoline further profiting those gas stations. ($4.19 on my street today) I even placed an option on chevrons price increasing and I got an %80 profit in 3 days, $260 to me a few billion to someone else. Now in Ohio, an hour's wage at the gas station here is $12.50 per hour.

Inflation is creating new floors on everything except income to workers, no wonder our jobs rate declined.

Raking in billions, more syphoning of our new money.

All of this further feeds the system as a whole to do it over and over until what? Are we doomed to be pulled tighter or will they cut us some slack and distribute the new money?

By the time we hear of good things inflation would have created another new floor.

The government is doing all of this intentionally, some would say it's literally late stage capitalism, I think that capitalism is a good system when the right people are in charge & policies in place of the future. Electricity is insanely high now, my neighbour paid $650 for 1 month of electricity while rent is $1800. This month.

I'm tired of this trap.

Just speaking what I see happening, are we not being herded blindly, like sheep?

the destruction of the middle class is speeding up by pushing everyone into either the upper or lower class, and middle class are celebrating their gains.

The national debt is up to 40 trillion and interest payments are almost a trillion a year. Wages are stagnant and revenue is down. The lower & middle class are being pushed forcibly over the cliff slowly.

Let me start out by saying I’m not making rash and sudden decisions, I want to better understand what’s happened and what considerations I should think about as we continue through a shitty US economy. I’m not asking this to scramble and pull all my money out, but to ask if there are any scenarios at all in which is it worth it to consider pausing or lessening 401k contributions for a period of time.

With the internet gossip saying that hedge funds are betting against the economy, the AI bubble is just waiting to pop at some point in the future, Japan and Koreas economies are canaries in a coal mine and private equity having access to 401ks
Idk if it’s fear mongering or truth telling but seems like the common thread is private equity trying to get access to 401k money and big corps stealing from regular people. I’m just a regular person trying to figure out what the fuck is going on lmao

I’m 31, make 70k a year, contribute 10% of my salary in a single household. I have a little bit of an emergency fund, like 2 months worth. Less than 17k debt of student loans and credit cards combined. I know investing is you wanna keep contributing as much and as long as I can. And that I’m young and have time to my retirement.
I don’t need specific advice I just want to know what I should be on the look out for.

I want to know is there a scenario or point at which paying into my 401k is just handing money to Corporate CEOs with extra steps? I want to keep paying off my debt and saving money and if there’s a “trigger” or something I should be on the look for that lets me know “yup. Wrap it up. Investing in your 401k is just handing money to AI CEOs”
I would not mind pausing for a year or two and putting that money towards my own debt or savings instead. Turn my 2 months of safety net into 3 months. Finish my debt faster. Maybe open a HYSA (on my to do list) and put the money I would have put into my 401k into that instead for a while until the impending mess blows over.

I don’t understand all the mechanisms or systems lol I’ll rewatch the big short but if my money is going to be “invested” but actually save an AI company fro falling I’d rather pause the investment for a short while and put that money into my own financial goals