Quite the execution here

reposted due to audio issue

Why he hasn’t gotten more playing time is beyond me. Hes looked good in every game he’s played and this has been by far the best year of his career

Statue commemorates the moment Mike Cameron and Mark McLemore held up an American flag on field shortly after the 9/11 attacks. The moment occured in the first game after MLB suspended the season for the week after the attacks. The 2001 season also remains special for Mariners fans specifically because the team won a still-record 116 games. Statue is located in the center field plaza, so fans entering through those gates will be the first to check it out today.

Pic taken walking by the stadium this AM and with gates closed I could not get a better picture.

Athletics (54-86) @ Mariners (66-74)

First Pitch: 6:40 PM at T-Mobile Park

Line Score - Game Over

Box Score

Scoring Plays

Highlights

Decisions

Game ended at 10:08 PM.

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Hello. I am totally ok with being downvoted, but I wanna talk about Julio Rodriguez. I just wanna start off by prefacing that I love Julio. Ever since 2022, he's been every bit worth of his contract and I hope he stays in Seattle his entire career. That being said, his defensive misplay and his last 20 games or so around 82 ABs / 89PA, he's slashed .159/.213/.268 with an OPS of .482.

I've seen a lot of people say in baseball how Julio isn't worth his contract or that he's on a decline that's going to give Mariners headaches in the future. I wanted to know if there was a reason behind that.

If I were to give a stance on this, which would be extremely biased and heavily skewed towards Julio, I would say he's just in a prolonged slump. Vibes are pretty low for his especially because of the down season and he's always stricken me as a type of guy that rides the good vibes and translates that into offensive production.

In 2022, I don't think anyone has forgotten how productive Julio was at the plate.
He slashed .284/.345/.509 with an .854 OPS, 28 bombs, 25 bags, and a 147 OPS+, and a 6.2bWAR taking home AL ROY honors. He was an all around very good player hitting for a (relatively) high average, slugging bombs, having a good arm in center, stealing bags, and playing great defense. He finished 7th in AL MVP voting.

In August 26th of 2022, Julio signed a massive 209.3 million dollar contract for a 12 year extension (2023-2034) with options and incentives possibly capping out at 470 million$.

His current guarenteed portion works out to around 17.4mm$ per year.

In 2023, in 714 PA, 654 ABs he hit for a slashline of
(.275/.333/.485) with 32 bombs and 37 bags and a 130 OPS+ and a bWAR of 5.5 finishing 4th in AL MVP voting.
Notably, his expected batting average went up, his K rate hovered around 25%, he was barreling the balls at a higher velocity, however, his expected weighted OBA stayed at .338.

Now just comparing the 2 seasons from 2022, 2023, there isn't much of a decline to be concerned about. I think 2022 Julio was a bit luckier than what baseball reference would suggest notably finishing 2022 with an batting average 30-40 points higher than his expected batting average where as 2023 Julio preformed nearly identically to his expected stats. Additionally, I don't think his statistical differences were high enough to warrant any sort of concerns of a decline.

Now 2024 I think was an off year for Julio. Very strange year for him for sure. He acumulated a career low 4.2 bWAR, with 613 PA and 567 ABs, he pimped 20 bombs, stole 24 bags and didnt recieve any rewards or a all-star selection. Notably, his xwOBA was higher in 2024 than his previous 2 seasons sitting at .345. While in 2022 and 2023, he outpreformed his wOBA compared to his xwOBA, in 2024 his xwOBA was way higher than his wOBA. This means that in 2022 and 2023, he provided more offensive value than what was expected of him. Oddly enough, he shouldve provided more offensive value in 2024 than his previous 2 seasons despite hitting for a career low in bombs, bags stolen, BA, OBP, and SLUG. Notably, his xBA spiked from 2023 to 2024 going from .247 in 2022 to .263 in 2023 to .270 in 2024 and his SLG stayed mostly the same throughout 2022-2024 (around the .467-.473 range).

I would conclude from 2022 to 2024, that there wasn't any statistical data to back that Julio's offensive decline is even evident in any metric.

Now lets move onto 2025. A huge step up for Julio in terms of cumulative production. He played in a career high 160 games, led the league with 710 PAs, led MLB with 652 ABs, slashed (.267/.324/.474) with 32 bombs (matching a career high in 2023), 30 bags and was a premier outfielder with a career defensive season in center with 10 defensive run value. He posted a career high 6.6 bWAR, finished 6th in AL MVP, and posted his 4th consecutive season with at least a 20/20 season. Notably, his xwOBA was nearly identical to his wOBA and nearly matched his 2024 xwOBA around .344.

His expected stats were nearly identical in 2025 with 2024 with a career xBA of .269-.270 range, slight uptick in the xSLG at .479 (CAREER HIGH), and a rebound to his OPS to around .798. Again, oddly enough his xwOBA didnt change from his 2024 season staying at .344

My verdict on his stretch through 2022 to 2025. I don't think there is any offensive metric that suggests theres some secret year on year decline. His xwOBA stayed exactly the game and even gained 6 points from his 2022. Even then he posted a career high of 6.6 bWAR. An amazing finish to the magical 2025 season.

Now 2026. Now heres where things start to get dicey. So far in 556 PA and 506 ABs, Julio is hitting for a career low in almost every metric even adjusted to 160 games (career high in games)
Slashing .243/.304/.401. All career worsts. Intrestingly enough, Julio's plate dicipline has gotten better over the years relatively speaking. Down from 25% K rate in 2022, he's improved it down to 22%, he's walking a career high 7.4%, and again oddly enough his xwOBA has stayed around the .340 range.

Now there is some important context to this. As mentioned at the beginning, Julio is on a long slump hitting for a .450 OPS in around 80 ABs. Prior to this prolonged slump, his expected numbers were at career highs. I'm not sure how to check but I do remember checking his savant page during the Rays series where his xBA was notably at a career best .273. However, his quality of contact numbers are dropping like flies. Average Exit Velo, Barrel %, Hard hit rate, etc. Honestly, if I could check before the slump occured I 100% would.

Now back to the original argument, is Julio's contract overpriced?

1. Absolutely not. 209 Million dollars minimum for 12 years is insane value. Julio has already posted roughly 20 career WAR since the signing of the contract. Fangraphs estimate that elite players projected at a rate above 2+ WAR are worth around 12.84 million/ WAR but a generated rate of $8 million per WAR. I get that $/WAR isn't a linear model, even then he is worth every bit of the contract and then some.

Is Julio on a YoY decline?

1. At least to my knowledge (I'm 18 and I've only been watching the Mariners since the 2017 season), I don't think Julio is on a decline. I just think the 2026 season in general has been a huge down season for a lot of players. Cal, Naylz, Julio, Ward, Woo, Kirby, Miller. A lot of these players key to this team are not producing this year and it's really odd and coincidental that struggles are all coming at once. It makes you wonder that systemic issues beyond the players are limiting their production like club house vibes, coaching, staff, etc. Of course, I don't wanna speculate and come to foregone conclusion but it's hard to think that this team is really as bad as the 2026 season has shown them to be.

2. Can the Mariners still build around Julio?
   I'm not really knowledgeable in this kind of stuff nor am I really knowledgeable about baseball in general. I'm just speaking as a passionate fan, but I really do think Julio can be a person was structure our team off of. I mean a guy who consistently produces 5-6 WAR per year and has done so for the past 4 years isn't someone to build off of? Sorry wait I framed that wierdly. Just trying to say he isn't a guy who'll carry your entire offense but is a guy who'll be consistent enough to be a major factor in propelling this team to wins. If that makes sense idk

Again, I'm not really an expert in this kind of thing, I'm really just a passionate fan wondering about Julio. What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments.

There’s still plenty of season left to be played folks…and time for an Etsy witch to show up, or some other good luck charm? Who knows

America just got a little bit better

I’m gonna regret posting this aren’t I?