Good afternoon my friends!
Alot of yall have reached out about the readiness of the simulator for this season and I am excited to announce that we are officially live for week0!! I spent the offseason doing some tweaking to both the simulator and the website so before I get into the picks, I wanted to share what is new for this season.
Sim Changes:
Last year's Sim treated us well, but by the end of the season there were lots of things I had learned about how to make it work better. So this offseason I did a clean sheet redesign, taking all the things that worked well and incorporating all the learning that was had. I am confident that this year's Sim should be better than what we had last year. Another huge improvement to Sim, last year we ran each game 1,000 times well this year we have gotten access to computers with much higher compute so we are now doing 10,000 simulations per game which should cut our "noise" quite a bit
FCS games:
Next, I'm excited about the opportunity to branch out into markets that I didnt previously simulate. Starting in week 0 we will now simulate all FBS v FBS and all FCS v FCS games. I will say that the FCS data is significantly smaller than the FBS so I wouldnt go throwing your life savings into those games based on the Sim but the backtest says there is plenty of edge there on these softer markets
Parlay Builder:
One of the most requested tools that Ive gotten. You can now stack legs across all games and build your own parlay and the site will go through all the games and find the exact number of iterations where each of those legs hit in order to give you true correlated odds for that specific parlay
Top Bets Table:
Finally, the second most requested tool, a full top 10 list of things where the sim finds the most value. There are 3 different tables, one for all game lines (ATS/Total/ML), one for game/team props (Team Totals, 1H ML, ect.), and the last is a player prop table (rushing yards, passing yards, TDs)
Excited to share this with all of yall for free again this year, I will be betting right along side of you so lets win together!! Now without further adue, lets get to some of my favorite bets for this weekend!
FBS:
San Jose State +35.5
New Mexico State +29.5
Sac State / EMU u52.5
FCS:
UT Martin -3.5
SEMO ML
Montana State -31.5
Player Props:
J Payne (TCU) u74.5 rushing
M Ford (Stanford) u85 rushing
J Dwyer (TCU) o4.5 receptions
