Bears WR Rome Odunze and RB D’Andre Swift exited practice with apparent injuries today.

Odunze came up hobbling during an install period at the start of practice. Looked like right leg. He wasn’t overly concerned — he tried to stay in — but trainers pulled him off.

Will audibly laugh at this pick during my draft tomorrow if it happens. Already one of the most stacked receiver rooms (if we’re talking depth) and he’s gonna take most of his snaps at corner. I’m surprised ESPN still has him ranked so high. In PPR mocks he’s higher than Jakobi and BTJ.

Is this a glitch because he’s also listed as a corner for IDP drafts? I’m not in an IDP mock. Am wondering if this will translate over to normal drafts. Someone who doesn’t do research might get screwed over pretty hard.

“Jadarian Price set for heavy workload with Zach Charbonnet out to start the season”

“Bijan Robinson fantasy managers “may not like how many goal-line carries [Brian Robinson] gets.”

“Blake Corum ‘Could Emerge as the 1A’ in Rams’ backfield.”

Above are three of the top posts on the sub this week, all of which are entirely composed of beat writer speculation without any basis in real, actionable information. Posts of these kind foster no substantive discussion and just serve as a forum for everyone to get in and argue over their preconceived notions on a given player, lowering the overall quality of discussion on the sub.

While I would prefer this kind of content not be allowed at all, I would like to see these kind of posts flaired as such and removed if they are not.

I’m seeing Emmett Johnson rostered in only 5% of leagues. I think it should be much higher. Plenty of other handcuffs have double or triple that roster rate. What’s the deal? Are people not aware of this situation?

First, let's talk about the Chiefs

1. Complete overhaul of the RB position group. (The previous several years were led by a 7th-round pick and literally guys off the street)
2. Patrick Mahomes will be playing on an ACL he tore in mid-December! It hasn’t even been 10 months.
3. Brought back former RB and RB Coach Eric Bieniemy to be their OC.
4. Pretty solid offensive line already, especially in the interior
5. They didn’t do much, if anything, to improve the WR room

So everything is pointing to the Chiefs focusing heavily on running the ball this year.

Let's look at how RBs have fared historically in Andy Reid offenses

I don’t really mean for this to be a Kenneth Walker post, so I’ll let you decide where you think he falls in this list talent-wise and leave it at that.

The biggest argument I’ve seen against taking Kenneth Walker is that he is injury-prone. So now let’s talk about his backup, the Chiefs' 5th-round pick in this year’s draft, who you can get for free right now.

The Chiefs brought in Emeri Demarcado this offseason to shore up the position, but ended up waiving him at the end of camp. Why? Because Emmett Johnson definitively won the backup RB spot.

Emmett Johnson’s preseason performance:

Rushing: 26 attempts, 123 yards, 4.73 yards per carry, 1 TD (another got called back on a penalty)

Receiving: 6 receptions for 35 yards on 7 targets

Pass Protection: Allowed zero pressures

Here is a snippet from a recent article about what made Demarcado expendable:

Heading into a season where quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be fresh off recovery from tearing his ACL and LCL, protecting the franchise player will be key. Reid made it clear he and the team have confidence in Johnson, the fifth-round pick from Nebraska, to step into a role usually suited for a veteran.

When asked about what has stood out about Johnson over the last few weeks, Reid led with that skill. “Pass protection,” Reid shared. “We knew he could run the ball, but the thing we had to see was pass protection. For him to be that No. 2 back, you have to be able to do that. He’s a smart kid and willing to stick up in there.”

So I don’t think there is any doubt that if Kenneth Walker goes down, Emmett Johnson will take his load. Brashard Smith is not the guy.

But is Emmett Johnson talented enough to be fantasy relevant if he takes over? To me, he passed the eye test. And his college play suggests he is more talented than Isaiah Pacheco, who was an RB17 in his 2nd season with the Chiefs. Or, if you want to compare to another rookie, CEH was RB22 under Reid.

TLDR (edited)

It is an elite handcuff situation because...

1. He won the backup job. His competitor got cut.

2. The Chiefs' plan is to run the ball a lot this season. More so than in previous years.

3. The starter is largely considered injury-prone.

4. They won't be shy about putting him on the field because the coaches consider him a good pass protector

5. Andy Reid's scheme is very friendly to RBs for fantasy production (even with later-round rookies)

Here’s a table showing 1st round WRs from 2016 to 2023 who averaged at least 8 PPG as rookies, and how their PPG progressed on average in Years 2 and 3:

Here’s the same table for the 2024 1st-round WR class:

Here is the list of every WR:

• Only Rome Odunze saw a +3 ppg increase in year 2
• Nabers' decrease was injury related
• Thomas & Worthy were really bad
• Ladd McConkey at pick 34 in the draft also saw a decrease of 3.75 ppg

I really don't know what to make of this. Either this is the worst draft class of all time, or we're going to see a massive bounce back this year.

Its also interesting to look at last year's draft class. Historically, we can expect 1 or 2 WRs to increase their ppg by 3 or more points. If McMillan or Egbuka make that jump, they would finishe as a WR1 last year if we use the 2025 PPG numbers (they would have only been a WR15 - 21 finish in 2024). If Matthew Golden manages a 3 PPG bump, he's still completely irrelevant.

Tl;DR: I got drunk and wanted to look into how often big offseason deals translated to "big" performances the next season for RBs and WRs (and how often they were busts) as part of a petty argument over Alec Pierce.

Results:

Overview of Newly Signed RB & WR AAV as a % of Salary Cap vs Final Position Ranking

The Boring

To the surprise of no-one (except maybe me who thought there's be some sort of groundbreaking revelation from a hypothesis that essentially boils down to "Are NFL Front Offices Full of People Much Smarter than Me Dumb with their Money?"), NFL Front offices have a relatively good grasp of what players are worth. Across 105 veteran running back and wide receiver contracts signed in the 2021–2025 offseasons, a contract’s average annual value (AAV) as a share of that year’s salary cap correlates positively with the player’s PPR fantasy points per game in the season played under that deal.

• Wide receivers: r = +0.73 (strong positive correlation, n = 59)
• Running backs: r = +0.63 (strong positive correlation, n = 46)

Note: Players that suffered major injuries that precluded them from playing a substantial portion of games were excluded. Why? Mainly for the sake of normalizing data.

The Less Boring (aka Player-Specific Confirmation Bias)

• JK Dobbins: Since 2021, there has been only one Running Back that signed a new deal with an AAV worth more than 3% of that year's salary cap that failed to finish the year within the Top 30 RBs (Alvin Kamara). This year, Dobbins is the only RB playing under a new deal that fall above that 3% criteria not currently ranked inside the RB top 30 (per ESPN rankings). This

• Alec Pierce: Alec Pierce's new deal has an AAV of roughly 9.4% of the total cap. Statistically-speaking there's not any particularly strong evidence indicating future performance, but I'm sure Pierce owners will look at that cluster of top 20 finishes in that general AAV range and talk themselves into it being a guarantee of greatness.

• JSN: DK Metcalf (2025) is the only WR in the analysis period to put up a follow-up performance to a deal with an AAV exceeding 12% of the Cap that did not place in the top 15. JSN is the only WR with a new deal fitting that criteria this year (~14%), though Drake London (11.7%) and Zay Flowers (11.6%) are close behind.

Hey, everyone. I'm Mike Maher, former Editor in Chief at FantasyPros and current Head of Product Strategy at BettingPros. My handle is my name (mikemaher) on most socials, including the one that shall not be named.

I'm 11th overall in Multi-Year Draft Rankings Accuracy and finished 13th in 2025 In-Season Rankings Accuracy.

Thanks to Jeremy and all of you for having me and building this community.

Excited to hop in and do an AMA. I'll drop this post here and then circle back a little bit after 7pm ET and start answering as many questions as I can for about 90 minutes or so.

We have a ton of cool stuff happening over at FantasyPros, including an API for those of you playing around with AI and creating your own fantasy football tools.

And of course, there are more updates to the FantasyPros Fantasy Football Draft Assistant, the best fantasy draft tool out there in my clearly unbiased opinion.

If you use that tool, my personal favorite way to utilize it is to create my own cheat sheet from my rankings, create another one from a few of my favorite experts, and then flip back and forth between those two and the "Most Accurate Experts" option so I can see where the advice agrees and disagrees about my draft.

We also have an extremely cool update in the works where users will be able to see their own Fantasy Football User Ratings, which are generated from your past performances in your fantasy leagues based on your skills drafting, trading, making lineup decisions, and waivers.

I could talk about that stuff all night, but I assume you guys are more interested in your fantasy drafts and rosters.

So let's start firing off some questions and get after it.